Friday, June 16, 2017

Will Trump Fire Mueller?

Tweeted AFTER This Article Was Written!
There are some big questions looming as to how the Oval Office will respond to a special counselor that (a) has assembled what everyone who knows describes as a "dream team" and (b) seems to be targeting Trump himself (for obstruction of justice?). Trump had, allegedly, talked about firing Mueller--but was backed off by his staff. After all, what could look worse?

The answer is: Getting hit with a case of Obstruction of Justice. That could look worse.

Now, let's make a best-case assumption:

  1. The Omnivore is willing to grant--either for sake of argument--or because of a dearth of existing evidence--that not only did Trump not collude with Russia ... but also his team had no coherent Russia-based plan. Let's assume that: it's the best case for Trump and it's feasible. If, say, Flynn was doing some dicey stuff there's still no evidence that he told Trump about it or did it under Trump's direction. Flynn is, if nothing else, a loose cannon. Maybe he was firing on his own?
  2. Let's also assume that while there is some questionable stuff with Trump's finances, Jared's family-business dealings, and so on, nothing is out there that will put them in jail. Embarrass, yes--but not sink. That, again, is the best-case scenario here.
  3. Finally, let's assume that Trump's enemies include Comey. Trump-Supporters believe that Comey had an irrational dislike for the president and therefore wrote his memos and held discussions designed from the start to discredit Trump. It's not impossible, right? Let's assume it.
Under the best-case scenario, does Trump fire/try to fire Mueller?

Well, Does He?

Yep. The Omnivore's assessment here is that Trump (a) has, apparently, zero self-control, (b) appears to like firing people (it's "what he does"), and (c) has one mode--hard-ball. Basically, as bad press mounts from the drips and drabs of the investigation leaking out, Trump's game-plan will be to first defame Mueller--which will have the result of making it personal. He will then try to build support in the Trump-o-sphere for canning Mueller.

Once his supporters are on-board, especially if Team Mueller does anything that looks like taking the bait (rising to the defamation), Trump will pull the trigger.

This is, of course, the most absolutely disastrous thing Trump could do--but that, thus far, has been Trump's game-plan.

"I  hope you're not grasping at the 'he's' a child" straw du jour."?

An Omni-Friend speculated that Trump revealed code-word level Iraqi intel because he was negotiating with Russia (as opposed to stupidly bragging). I was astonished that someone (some smart, anyway) could think that Trump had a real plan in dealing with Russia and releasing intel. Everything we know about Trump suggests that he Does Not Do The Reading.

In other words, he wouldn't have a good grasp on what was super-confidential or not. He might well let something slip for other than strategic purposes.

The Omni-friend wanted to know how credulous The Omnivore was! Could The Omnivore really believe that Trump was a kid?

Weeelll ... yes. Yes, The Omnivore can. This is, of course, a matter of definition, but at this point it is hard to come to any other conclusion (NOTE: The Omnivore did NOT believe that Bush Jr. was a moron or anything like that). 
  1. Trump gets spun around easily. He changes positions often and not strategically. Some of this is just being very ambiguous--but some of it seems to be whoever got to him last.
  2. Trump can't stop tweeting. There is no doubt that Trump's tweets are hurting him. As his favorable ratings decline his Tweets are the one thing everyone can agree he should cut back on. He won't/can't. This isn't some grand plan. This is lack of control.
  3. Word from insiders is that he's a mess. If we assume 25% of it is true--even that little--he seems to have the willpower of a 7 year old.
  4. He's not just making newbie mistakes--he's making tons of unforced errors. This might be bad strategy or it might be deep strategy--but honestly, it looks like "neither." His inability to get the "wins" he wants is partially due to GOP in-fighting--true--but a lot of it is due to him not being able to get his pants on straight either.
Over-all, the picture is, yeah, someone with zero impulse control.

So Where Does This Leave Us?

The Omnivore is shit for predictions, really, and this one may not be any better--but The Omnivore doesn't see how Trump's survival instinct kicks in now and has him leave Mueller alone. As soon as Fox & Friends questions why he's keeping the guy on when he's obviously biased against Trump, Trump will do what he really wants to: Try to fire the guy.

Now--there is one thing that might stop him: that he kinda can't. The rules are complicated and best explained here--but the net-net is that he has to order someone to do it. Sessions clearly would--but has semi-recused himself. Rosenstein has said he "won't" without good reason--and there's unlikely to be a really good reason. Further down the food-chain are career bureaucrats who don't like Trump. 

So it could fail / backfire spectacularly.

So we'll see--but The Omnivore's money is on the firing because it is unthinkably stupid. ALSO NOTE: that's in the best-case scenario. I the mid-case scenario Trump knows there is something "his people did" that was possibly treasonous and he knows they know he knows about it. Maybe his only act was not stopping them--but Trump knows that under pressure they'll point the finger.

In this (or worse) Trump knows the dream team might really get him. That makes it worse.

1 comment:

  1. Worse case is the entire Trump "empire" comes down like a house of cards. And "Trump" becomes synonymous with "Benedict Arnold".

    Concerned this could happen (if he can think strategically and not just reactively), he fires Mueller to prevent this from happening. Though at that point even the in-the-tank GOP has to turn on him. Right? No?! Omg we're f*cked.